Book 3 - Page 255

Roger, Dodger

Book 3 - Page 255
Comic - Book 3 - Page 255
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Here's another case where Roger's theory doesn't fit what we saw in comic, or at least fits with an implausable stretch.
Recently we saw Marie cast Predictamacy (judging by the incantation and the effect) on herself and start running towards the center of the Portal park.
In the next moments she's able to be at the exact place and time to immediately jump into (and be protected by) newly-appeared "I'm coming for you Stanley"'s portal. Now the portal appeared only because in the outside world Vinnie and Ansom took the Faq city and the capital was automatically transferred.
The scene with Marie took only about how long it took the casters in the park to notice Marie and start shooting, probably less than a minute. The battle for Faq lasted for what looked like no less than 20 minutes, but probably more. Only Faq, GK, Tranlylvito and perhaps Charlie knew that battle was happening, none of them talked directly or indirectly with Marie. So, what are the options here?
1) Predictamancer's can't see future, only jump to the conclusion that you could get by solving a decision-tree, and release dictums
1a) Marie's spell created a powerful dictum that was able to make the already-raging battle for Faq be finished in less than a minute. Seems very overpowered and does not explain why she went to the park in the first place
1b) Marie's spell isn't actually a predictamancy, but a weird combination of lookamancy/mathamancy. Marie was able to peer into Faq and determine when the battle would end. Also seems a little overpowered as far as a lookamancy goes, and doesn't explain how Marie knew to go to park before casting the spell.
1c) There were already other dictum(s) in play and Marie's spell simply allowed her to see their actions and gain feedback from them. Doesn't fit that RVC said dictums were "inpercievable". Also how is that different from simply all the dictums being part of the Fate, and Predictamancers communicating with it?
or
2) Predictamancers actually can see future that no decision tree would allow to infer, and even if their predictions (sometimes/always) create dictums, said dictums can only act in confines of the Fate (which can theoretically be all the previous dictums together).

TL;DR: Marie's predictamancy spell which she currently uses to take a city from Jillian doesn't fit "Predictamancers can't really see future" narrative
zilfallon wrote:
Self-sacrifice is probably natural croakamancy, because Bea was not a caster, and I think it is kinda obvious that her sacrifice had a huge effect.
"Self-sacrifice" is the wrong term, RVC is on to something, but he's crucially wrong. A sacrifice is when you give up something for the sake of something you value more. The purity of will to destruction involved in a Naughtimantic 'sacrifice' isn't giving up one thing in exchange for another, it is demanding the undivided whole of indiscriminate destruction of all things. Wanda has that desire, however imperfectly. Roger doesn't, he is attached, he is thinking of bargaining with the abyss rather than flinging himself in along with everything that won't release him to it.

He has no real understanding of Naughtimancy beyond what is necessary to cast a hoboken.
Omnimancer wrote:
Another interesting tidbit is that these "luck golems" act without the ongoing control of their maker. So if the Titans, or some other deity, did create epic history-spanning dictums to control Erfworld, that doesn't mean the Titans are still around. Their dictums could potentially be operating on autopilot long after they vanished.
Personally, if I had the ability to make dictums that shaped reality so absolutely, I'd at least consider making one or two that would prevent me from disappearing, but then again who knows what the real motives of the Titans are?
DVL wrote:
Even the whole Decision Tree thing is just Thinkamancers using pure induction to come to conclusions. This works well, if for example, you wanted to prove a mathematical theorem or something else equally abstract. It's less good if you care about observation and experimentation.
The Thinkamancers are relying on deduction rather than induction. The fact that science relies heavily on induction, which is generally derided by philosophy as epistemologically 'inferior' to deduction, is a large part of the reason it is so difficult for most intellectuals.

Induction is far more natural a mode of thought than deduction for humans, particularly those with pressing survival concerns. This saddles induction with two additional demerits in the eyes of the intellectual class of society, first that it is common, second that it is characteristic of barbarism and poverty rather than civilization and education. The worst thing about inductive reasoning, though, is that it requires going out and actually doing things and experiencing things first hand rather than sitting around discussing them.

Intelligent pragmatists have made used of inductive reasoning about probable general principles tied together with deductive reasoning to generate specific tests of the validity of those principles since humans became human at a cognitive level. There is no first "invention" of the scientific method, it is the method which is a prerequisite for invention as we understand it. So you can only talk about the influence of philosophers who accepted and promoted it to other intellectuals despite their entirely natural dislike of inductive reasoning.

In every generation, there is a slide away from settling arguments by empirical experimentation and towards reliance on deduction working from accepted premises. The actual champions of experimentation are never recognized until a later generation...if ever.
Omnimancer wrote:
... but it means that there's no time travel shenanigans going on in Erfworld. Information is not traveling back in time to the predictamancers. I think that's a pretty interesting revelation by itself.


Well, going back in time should fall into the purview of Retconjuration + Turnamancy link (going back a turn) retconjuration is needed so you "play" your turn differently. (technically its accessing the Erf menu of "load game".)
Chiu ChunLing wrote:
zilfallon wrote:
Self-sacrifice is probably natural croakamancy, because Bea was not a caster, and I think it is kinda obvious that her sacrifice had a huge effect.
"Self-sacrifice" is the wrong term, RVC is on to something, but he's crucially wrong. A sacrifice is when you give up something for the sake of something you value more. The purity of will to destruction involved in a Naughtimantic 'sacrifice' isn't giving up one thing in exchange for another, it is demanding the undivided whole of indiscriminate destruction of all things. Wanda has that desire, however imperfectly. Roger doesn't, he is attached, he is thinking of bargaining with the abyss rather than flinging himself in along with everything that won't release him to it.


Ooooooo. Now that's poetry.
greycat wrote:
And we the readers have never seen an actual Prediction. We don't know what kind of information the Predictamancers receive. Is it visual? Linguistic? Spoken words? Written words? Raw emotions that they have to learn how to interpret as events? Smells? All we know (so far) is what the Predictamancers have said aloud to the other characters, and what they've actually done.

We saw Marie Predicting whether or not Parson would pass through the Charlescomm portal; she was definitely receiving at least visual input, the narration described her eye movements in some detail.

keybounce wrote:
JadedDragoon wrote:
Ladies and gentlemen I give you the ultimate retconjurer... Rob Balder. And what a gorgeous piece of work this one is. You could almost be forgiven for thinking this was his plan all along. Absolutely magnificent.

What, you think he thinks he's the primary villain?

Parson and Jillian burst through the doors of Dark Queen Wanda's inner sanctum. Both of them are glowing a dazzling blue thanks to the benefit of Charlie's supercharge spell. "Your minions are no match for us!" snaps Jillian. Parson raises the Sword of Ruthlessness "Too bad it had to come to this, Wanda. You should've stuck with the winning team."

Dark Queen Wanda, still facing the window, chuckles deeply. Reaching out with her Ruler powers, she slams the doors shut, and turns around slowly. Her eyes blaze with Naughtymantic power beneath her cowl. "Call me Wanda no more, Lord Hamster. You may call me... Rob."

(Suddenly the forum implodes.)

keybounce wrote:
So page 10 is no longer about Jillian, but about whether she is fated and what that means

So nothing has changed whatsoever, basically :lol:

Skater901 wrote:
Totally theoretical idea; it's [flexural] got something to do with casters who give Stuff Motion. Dollamancers, Turnamancers maybe, etc.

Can't be that, because Bunny used the word to convey some sense of Bill's character/personality/mental traits to Maggie. Maggie already knew he was a Dollamancer so that wouldn't provide any new information.

EpicCrab wrote:
Maybe the Fate was always meant for Olive specifically but only mentioned the Ruler because she would be Ruler at the time, and other possible Rulers were never in danger.

But knowing that "she would be Ruler at the time" would require real knowledge of the future, which Roger is claiming Predictamancy can't actually do. Unless the dictum forced that too, but if Predictions are just predictums, why the circuituous route?
(Also her interaction with Charlie suggests she already had a predilection for being a "power behind the throne" even before the Prediction, so I don't buy "Predictions just describe the most likely outcome" either.)

Digit wrote:
DoctorD wrote:
I think they would also have to keep the predictamancer in the dark. "Hey, what are we linking up for again?" "Just trust me."

Seems right up the Carnymantic alley, keeping the mark in the dark.

"Trust me." said the Carnymancer.
"...I'm just gonna cast for a quick glance at my immediate future." said the Predictamancer.
greyknight wrote:
Digit wrote:
DoctorD wrote:
I think they would also have to keep the predictamancer in the dark. "Hey, what are we linking up for again?" "Just trust me."

Seems right up the Carnymantic alley, keeping the mark in the dark.

"Trust me." said the Carnymancer.
"...I'm just gonna cast for a quick glance at my immediate future." said the Predictamancer.


Too bad, the predictamancer hasn't a fate, because its a predictamancer that didn't matter (reason why we don't even mae him/her) so the future is cloudy. :p

It may be me, but unaroyal (which seems to mean its not royal or in spanish "irreal" aka unreal) doesn't look like a parangon of royalty. and the caster flock they got are all great to make your bastard ruler the best at diplomacy. (carnimancer downplayed as if it was a disgrace so people would open up and feel pity for you) a turnamancer to know what you need to say so things turn your way, a thinkamancer to do links...

Queen bea seems also a play on "queen bee" so her personal regalia would have black and yellow stripes?

Can a weirdomancer give the caster special to their ruler so they can go thru the portal without disbanding, or that would need carnymancer + weirdo?

They had a fourth caster (spencer?) which haven't yet came to haunt parson yet too.

also, I think we are being foreshadowed with all those luck golems that the "jed eye's knights" are going to turn en masse into luck golems for someone and when we finally get to see them, they will be "ghost form of them wearing a jedi knight robe and sabers" :v
KeiranHalcyon31 wrote:
I'm gonna stay out of the discussion on Fate, and say that I was really impressed by Parson's shadow. Excellent as always, Xin.


Are shadows drawn by Xin, or added in the colouring phase?
JadedDragoon wrote:
Also I never found it odd that Unaroyal was important.

My point is that for a side and ruler that ended up influencing lots of events in almost 2 entire books, Unaroyal and Bea was hugely underdeveloped.

A few mentions in Book 1 and a text update showing how Bea walked into a portal, that's it, but suddenly they're somehow the cause of most people's actions. In other words, not enough suspense built up for Bea's sacrifice, so everything being somehow connected to it feels cheap.

Not sure I've managed to get my point across.

Oh well, we aren't in any shortage of suspense this book, so... :D
Me thinks Roger is doing that caster thing. The one where they belittle other disciplines in their mind because they feel superior. From jump, his premise is flawed at least. By saying Fate is not an intelligent entity, he moves Fate outside his field as a Thinkamancer. Claiming he understands it better than specialists who constantly interact with Fate is ridiculous.
If Roger is correct, then Predictamancers would know already. The concept is that by casting a spell, you impart a fate on someone that will then create the future that has been envisioned. As predictors have the ability to know when they are seeing a fated unit, this would mean that they would be able to cast a spell, and see a unit become fated.

As far as we know, this doesn't happen. That sort of thing is a carny trick, that doesn't work too well. Their most notable predict type ability is to save a unit from croaking. Doing this causes a terrible price though. The price seems to be to impose a fate of how the saved unit will die anyway. This is more of an additional condition though. Scarlet was going to die in a fire, as there was no way to heal her, so Jojo cast a spell that made it so she could only die from her own actions.

We know Charlie did something similar to himself, to survive being killed by the drugs that were killing him. Since fate can't be stopped, he will still have to die from the drugs, which is possibly why his body was perminately incapacitated, but he also has a second condition added. Given that carnys try and pick difficult things to be fated to die from. He probably picked that he couldn't die except by another "perfect" warlord, like Judy.

The alternative is that fated units are born after casting spells, and most predictions work though them. Possibly they have fates that can be altered from casting. Which would mean that when Marie cast on Jillian to see if she would be ambushed, that was altering Jillian's fate.

There is also the issue of days that are impossible to predict. Things can go one way or the other and it's impossible to know. All that can be determined is that something VERY important is going to happen.

It's clear fate does have methods though. Fated units seem to be given a fate fragment that sorta guides them to do various things. I would imagine Scarlet had such a voice that gradually goaded her into taking more and more risks. We also know that fate causes things to happen. A rock dropping at a certain time, a fumble while attacking. Those are external happenings. When Charlie scooped out Jillian's fate voice, this causes some issues. She still has a fate, but she needs external cues to force her down that path.