Book 3 - Page 212

Giants and dodgers

Book 3 - Page 212
Comic - Book 3 - Page 212
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My point is that is was reasonable for people to assume that Jillian had a 60% chance of attacking TV because the bracer stated it was the case.

I agree Jillian has a lot of motivation to attack GK and that has ultimately what has come to pass however Charlie had a lot of motivation to move a force that is potentially not affected by the contract he has with GK to make sure Parson died or used the scroll of GTFO.

Charlie has shown that he can influence Jillian to act against TVs interests in favour of his by getting her to send Vanna to TV for an absurd sum of money.

To me and others the 60% never represented Jillian's desire to attack TV but Charlies ability to influence her to attack TV to get at Parson.


Edit: As for the table it was just a side point if I am honest I am not sure it even fits the same function as what it is currently being used for now but it has brought to light an interesting point you have made a few times.

Parson has two stated fates (we know about he might have more)

1) Kill Charlie
2) End War

The two might not be one and the same and anything that can't be directly attributed to kill Charlie could be attributed to the other.
Well, I can't agree with you that Charlie leaning on Jillian to attack TV was a particularly likely scenario, either. He doesn't really have any leverage on her that could provoke her to commit such a politically damaging maneuver, other than threatening to roll over her kingdom. And if Charlie's going to conquer a kingdom, it might as well be the one he has an actual issue with. Plus, until this page we didn't even know Jillian knew about guns. As far as (we knew) she knew, all he had were archons, and she excels at aerial combat. Her whole side is built around it, so she wouldn't be easily swayed by such a threat from Charlie.
Ozamataz Buckshank wrote:
To take the 60% chance of Faq attacking Transylvito as accurate is to completely misunderstand the purpose of that figure. The whole point of that scene was to show us it isn't perfect. We've seen over the course of 2 1/2 books that Jillian wants to take down Stanley. We had an update from her POV that spelled out that she had her sights set on the city of Gobwin Knob. If you really pay attention to the plot so far you'd see that there was absolutely no way that Jillian would go after Transylvito.

The thing is, Caesar thinks she might attack. He's seen her be unreasonable and dangerous; she attacked him out of nowhere when she heard about Ansom's death. She's always cagey and curt when talking to Don, the last few turns especially so. He recently learned she's being bankrolled by Charlie, and he swallowed Parson's lies about her history of betrayal whole. From his perspective, she's a threat, and as Chief Warlord of Transylvito he has full access to the side's available intel. So naturally, he comes up with a figure close to what the bracer does, since it pulls from the same sources.

If I may, I believe there is a similar, but different explanation that allows for perfect knowledge behind the bracer's calculations. One scenario, perhaps the only scenario, in which Jillian would attack Transylvito is if TV betrayed her by attacking first. If Caeser were convinced of an attack, given Vinnie's intel that FAQ is mostly empty, there's roughly a 100% chance that TV the would launch a preemptive strike. So, a 60% chance that TV would attack (their estimate of treachery on Jillian's part) becomes the 60% chance that Jillian would attack TV as a counterattack

I took that scene not to be instructive of the limits of the braver, but of the pitfalls of trying to predict the future. It's easy to create a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Leverage?

If Charlie offered Jillian 1 million schmuckers to attack TV it isn't unreasonable to assume she would do so. Not happy with 1 million stick another 9 on top? In addition Jillian by her own code of 'ethics' owes Charlie a debt due to him saving her.

Charlie doesn't have to use the stick here he has plenty of carrots.
atteSmythe wrote:
If I may, I believe there is a similar, but different explanation that allows for perfect knowledge behind the bracer's calculations. One scenario, perhaps the only scenario, in which Jillian would attack Transylvito is if TV betrayed her by attacking first. If Caeser were convinced of an attack, given Vinnie's intel that FAQ is mostly empty, there's roughly a 100% chance that TV the would launch a preemptive strike. So, a 60% chance that TV would attack (their estimate of treachery on Jillian's part) becomes the 60% chance that Jillian would attack TV as a counterattack

I took that scene not to be instructive of the limits of the braver, but of the pitfalls of trying to predict the future. It's easy to create a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Mm, I think if TV launched a preemptive attack they wouldn't leave Jillian alive to counterattack. 60% chance of her escaping seems wrong, either because it's too high (since they'd have the intel to attack when she's vulnerable) or too low (because she's infamously lucky like that, presumably because of Fate again). But more than that, the calculation was specifically for the attack happening in the next turn or two, not some time in the indefinite future.

CDS wrote:
Leverage?

If Charlie offered Jillian 1 million schmuckers to attack TV it isn't unreasonable to assume she would do so. Not happy with 1 million stick another 9 on top? In addition Jillian by her own code of 'ethics' owes Charlie a debt due to him saving her.

Charlie doesn't have to use the stick here he has plenty of carrots.

Charlie is not that free with his money. He only went as high as 1.5 million for Transylvito to turn Parson over to him. He's not going to offer six times that for Parson to maybe get killed. And like I said, it'd be political suicide. Jillian turning on Transylvito unprovoked like that would make her enemies with the entire Royal Crown Coalition.
O.o
feanen wrote:
contrabassist wrote:


The schmuckers, as I have posted several times before, are useless sitting in the treasury and because it's not GK's turn anymore, the options are perhaps more limited -- have we ever seen a promotion of any sort off-turn? I wonder if Stanley could still order the Juggles to breed off-turn.

I also wondered very early in the thread how she got the guns she has: smuggled through the FAQ MK portal by JoJo or another contractor; or carried overland by Archons? Both present timing problems.

Certainly appointing an on-site Chief Warlord would help the defenders.


Parson promoted the HobGobwins to heavies during the battle for Spacerock: http://archives.erfworld.com/Book+2/114

They were also able to change their chief warlord off-turn, but possibly only when the previous chief warlord croaked. Also, Parson's i-book notes http://archives.erfworld.com/Book+2/86 say that you can upgrade a city off-turn, which suggests promotions are also possible

Count_to_10 wrote:

Well, if Stanley doesn't dump a huge number of schmuckers on promotions to save the city this turn, we can probably take that as confirmation that promotions have to happen on-turn. However, Parson was able to promote himself to a field unit off turn.
http://archives.erfworld.com/Book%202/103

So it does look like some actions like that are possible, although "off-turn" is not the same as "at night" when it is no one's turn. The Spacerock battle example is perhaps definitive -- it's Jetstone's turn.

So perhaps we'll see some fancy upgrading soon.
contrabassist wrote:
feanen wrote:
contrabassist wrote:


The schmuckers, as I have posted several times before, are useless sitting in the treasury and because it's not GK's turn anymore, the options are perhaps more limited -- have we ever seen a promotion of any sort off-turn? I wonder if Stanley could still order the Juggles to breed off-turn.

I also wondered very early in the thread how she got the guns she has: smuggled through the FAQ MK portal by JoJo or another contractor; or carried overland by Archons? Both present timing problems.

Certainly appointing an on-site Chief Warlord would help the defenders.


Parson promoted the HobGobwins to heavies during the battle for Spacerock: http://archives.erfworld.com/Book+2/114

They were also able to change their chief warlord off-turn, but possibly only when the previous chief warlord croaked. Also, Parson's i-book notes http://archives.erfworld.com/Book+2/86 say that you can upgrade a city off-turn, which suggests promotions are also possible

Count_to_10 wrote:

Well, if Stanley doesn't dump a huge number of schmuckers on promotions to save the city this turn, we can probably take that as confirmation that promotions have to happen on-turn. However, Parson was able to promote himself to a field unit off turn.
http://archives.erfworld.com/Book%202/103

So it does look like some actions like that are possible, although "off-turn" is not the same as "at night" when it is no one's turn. The Spacerock battle example is perhaps definitive -- it's Jetstone's turn.

So perhaps we'll see some fancy upgrading soon.


I'd like to see some upgrading. Rifles have been described as near insta kill weapons, but we've only seen them used against high value, low hits units. Rifles have seemed underwhelming so far.
If Antium dumps a million shmuckers into making everything a heavy, warlord or knight (there's probably not more then 150 units in the city based on the contents of CC breach of contact claim) then that would make me understand why Caesar is so freaked out about guns.
LiveDrinkRepeat wrote:
She is going to win that fight and it won't be "because Jillian has to win" but because the numbers are with her.


But are the numbers with her because she has to win?

There is an argument to be made that Jillian only has the numbers she does because that is what the author wrote. She didn't have to arrive with a force worth 180,000; her patrons could have conceivably given her less, more, or nothing at all. But Rob decided that Jillian would attack GK city with a force sufficiently sized and outfitted so as to make her victory a likely or probable outcome. Jillian has the numbers to potentially succeed against GKc because Rob's plot requires it; she can just as easily lose those numbers if that is also required by the plot.

I'm not suggesting that this validates or invalidates liking or disliking the character, I'm not going to jump into that discussion. I'm just pointing out that in any work of fiction, making the argument "events are not happening this way because this character must succeed/fail" is ridiculous and naive; everything happens at the whim of the fiction's creator, and generally because the needs of his/her plot dictate it. In short, it all happens "because [it] has to".
... Have those mountains always been around the city of GK? They don't look familiar...